The COVID-19 economic shutdown and the future of flexible workplace practices in the South Bay region of Los Angeles County.

The COVID-19 lockdown has increased the use of flexible workplace practices (FWP) especially work from home, demonstrating their importance to the resilience of transportation systems and regional economies. This study compares experiences and perceptions of FWP and related policy interventions before and during the COVID-19 shutdown, using a mixed-methods approach focusing on the South Bay region of Los Angeles County, to inform projections about the use of FWP and policy implications post-COVID. Pre-shutdown surveys and focus groups interviews confirmed that major obstacles to FWP expansion were a combination of managerial and executive resistance, alongside occupational constraints. Pre-shutdown interviews suggested that costs associated with manager training and cultural transition are major concerns for executives. A small sample of follow-up interviews with executives, managers, and staff, conducted during the shutdown period has revealed some of the practical issues with full-time FWP such as work-life balance, childcare, productivity, IT hardware and software, and network connectivity. Although organizations have been forced into flexible arrangements, many are considering continuing to utilize the practices after the pandemic settles down. In terms of policy interventions, pre-COVID participants perceived government subsidies and incentives as the most desirable government programs. However, in a resource-constrained post-COVID world, policy makers might instead focus on training programs and promotional campaigns tied to public health messaging, and the implications of reduced commuting for transportation system design and commercial zoning and land use.

Total Economic Consequences of an Influenza Outbreak in the United States.

Pandemic influenza represents a serious threat not only to the population of the United States, but also to its economy. In this study, we analyze the total economic consequences of potential influenza outbreaks in the United States for four cases based on the distinctions between disease severity and the presence/absence of vaccinations. The analysis is based on data and parameters on influenza obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and the general literature. A state-of-the-art economic impact modeling approach, computable general equilibrium, is applied to analyze a wide range of potential impacts stemming from the outbreaks. This study examines the economic impacts from changes in medical expenditures and workforce participation, and also takes into consideration different types of avoidance behavior and resilience actions not previously fully studied. Our results indicate that, in the absence of avoidance and resilience effects, a pandemic influenza outbreak could result in a loss in U.S. GDP of $25.4 billion, but that vaccination could reduce the losses to $19.9 billion. When behavioral and resilience factors are taken into account, a pandemic influenza outbreak could result in GDP losses of $45.3 billion without vaccination and $34.4 billion with vaccination. These results indicate the importance of including a broader set of causal factors to achieve more accurate estimates of the total economic impacts of not just pandemic influenza but biothreats in general. The results also highlight a number of actionable items that government policymakers and public health officials can use to help reduce potential economic losses from the outbreaks.

Flu, risks, and videotape: escalating fear and avoidance.

While extensive risk perception research has focused on emotions, cognitions, and behavior at static points in time, less attention has been paid to how these variables might change over time. This study assesses how negative affect, threat beliefs, perceived risk, and intended avoidance behavior change over the course of an escalating biological disaster. A scenario simulation methodology was used that presents respondents with a video simulation of a 15-day series of local news reports to immerse respondents in the developing details of the disaster. Systemic manipulation of the virus's causal origin (terrorist attack, medical lab accident, unknown) and the respondent's proximity to the virus (local vs. opposite coast) allowed us to investigate the dynamics of public response. The unfolding scenario was presented in discrete episodes, allowing responses to be tracked over the episodes. The sample includes 600 respondents equally split by sex and by location, with half in the Washington, DC area, and half in the Los Angeles area. The results showed respondents' reactions to the flu epidemic increased as the disaster escalated. More importantly, there was considerable consistency across respondents' emotional, cognitive, and behavioral responses to the epidemic over the episodes. In addition, the reactions of respondents proximally closer to the epidemic increased more rapidly and with greater intensity than their distant counterparts. Finally, as the flu epidemic escalated, both terrorist and accidental flu releases were perceived as being less risky and were less likely to lead to avoidance behavior compared to the unknown flu release.

Exploring reductions in London Underground passenger journeys following the July 2005 bombings.

We examine the reduction in London Underground passenger journeys in response to the July 2005 bombings. Using entrance data for London Underground stations between 2001 and 2007, we incorporate demand and supply factors in a multivariate time-series regression model to estimate changes in passenger journeys between different Underground lines. We find that passenger journeys fell by an average of 8.3% for the 4 months following the attacks. This amounts to an overall reduction of 22.5 million passenger journeys for that period. Passenger journeys returned to predicted levels during September 2005, yet we find evidence of reduced travel until June 2006. Our estimates controlled for other factors, including reduced Underground service provision due to damage from the attacks, economic conditions, and weather, yet substantial reductions in passenger journeys remained. Around 82% of passenger journey reductions following the 2005 attacks cannot be attributed to supply-side factors or demand-side factors such as economic conditions, weather, or the summer school-break alone. We suggest that this reduction may partially be due to an increased perception of the risk of Underground travel after the attacks.